Beginning Probability

Tackle Likelihood to Avoid Risk and Make Choices, while Using all You Know and Avoiding Decision-destroying Fallacies

Created by: Carol Jacoby
Excel for Decision Makers

What Will I Learn?

• Avoid the probability fallacies that often mislead people
• Calculate probabilities using cases and historical data
• Calculate the probabilities of complex events based on simpler ones
• Apply Bayes' Rule to bring outside knowledge into your probability estimates
• Use expected value to assess and compare alternatives
• Focus your analysis on segments or situations using conditional probability
• Reason correctly using false positives and false negatives
• Develop intuition about randomness

Requirements

• No requirements. No math skills needed beyond basic arithmetic. The spreadsheets are optional.

Target audience

• Beginner interested in more precise likelihood prediction
• Beginner who needs a probability foundation for statistics, risk analysis, data science or other more advanced analysis.